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Unify estimation across years #4

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curryc2 opened this issue Oct 12, 2018 · 0 comments
Open

Unify estimation across years #4

curryc2 opened this issue Oct 12, 2018 · 0 comments

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@curryc2
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curryc2 commented Oct 12, 2018

Currently the run reconstruction model estimates each year semi-independently. By this I mean estimation is separate for each year, but some information is shared among years (availability).

It would make sense to treat the run reconstruction in a fully hierarchical fashion, estimating each year conditional on values for key parameters in other years.

Selectivity parameters for example could be assumed to arise from a normal distribution with a group mean and standard deviation, suggesting (as was shown in Cunningham et al. 2017) that selectivity generally increases with ocean age, while also providing for inter-annual variation in selectivity values.

This likely requires treating availability deviations as a random effect and may necessitate re-coding in TMB.

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