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Pr(Death|Critical) > 1 in elderly? #1

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kokbent opened this issue Oct 4, 2020 · 0 comments
Open

Pr(Death|Critical) > 1 in elderly? #1

kokbent opened this issue Oct 4, 2020 · 0 comments

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@kokbent
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kokbent commented Oct 4, 2020

probSeriousOutcome[DEATH][HEALTHY ].resize(upper_age+1, icuMortalityFraction*fatal_com_neg[i]/critical_com_neg[i]);

Based on this and next line of code, it seems like Pr(Death|Critical) for 50-59 is 0.94 * icuMortalityfraction, 60-69 is 1.54 * icuMortalityfraction, 70-79 is 2.65 * icuMortalityfraction and 80+ is 6.65 * icuMortalityfraction for person with comorbidity and still larger than 1 before icuMortalityfraction adjustment for 70 above for healthy ones.

Is this intentional? Seems like the model would kill almost everyone in critical state if old.

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