- Abstract - We used a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to estimate demographic rates and population viability within the context of climatic and management-related changes for a data-deficient, declining population of black terns in the Upper Midwestern United States. We found that current conservation efforts during the breeding season are unlikely to reverse the declines observed within the last decade. Rather, interventions aimed at increasing adult survival are most likely to reduce quasi-extinction probability compared to no additional management or management targeting other rates. Our results highlight the importance of enhancing monitoring and management efforts for migratory species during migration and non-breeding periods. + Abstract - We used a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis to estimate demographic rates and population viability within the context of climatic and management-related changes for a data-deficient, declining population of black terns. We found that current conservation efforts during the breeding season are unlikely to reverse ongoing declines. Rather, interventions aimed at increasing adult survival are most likely to reduce quasi-extinction probability compared to management targeting other rates. Our results highlight the importance of enhanced monitoring and management efforts for migratory species during non-breeding periods.
Code and Data - Link to repo