Climatological baseline #265
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This is adding a purely climatological forecast as a potential baseline for Flu and Covid forecasting, as suggested by @ryantibs. It forms quantile predictions by using empirical quantiles of the 7 weeks centered on both the target and forecast dates for data from 2022 onwards. It averages a per-state version of this and a geo-pooled version.
At the moment, it only uses the nhsn data, which likely results in it over-indexing on the exact seasons we've had since the COVID19 pandemic (it excludes the 2020 and 2021 seasons).
Our current model consisted of averaging this purely climatological model with a linear model, so it would have some notion of recent trends; if there were interest, we could also submit a version of that without any manual adjustment as a separate ongoing model.
The historical forecasts were created using data as it was at the time (or versioned data). Hopefully this means they are acceptable as a submission. There is a corresponding PR for Flu here