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Backtesting GTAA and Timed Ivy Portfolio against UBAH and UBAH Redistributed for diversified portfolio

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Strategies

Index Tracker Portfolio

In this portfolio we only use index tracker funds, except for commodities, where we could not find a tracker fund. Instead for commodities we use an actively managed fund with experienced management.

Asset Class Fund Fund ISIN / Ticker Symbol Index Index ISIN
International LEGAL & GENERAL INTERNATIONAL INDEX TRUST GB00BG0QP604 FTSE ALL-WORLD EX UK IDX FTAWXUKSP:FSI
UK LEGAL & GENERAL UK INDEX GB00BG0QPJ30 FTSE ALL-SHARE INDEX FTASXS:FSI
Property ISHARES GLOBAL PROPERTY SECS. EQ. INDEX GB00BPFJCF57 FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed REITs GBP FTERGLS:FSI
Commodities BLACKROCK NATURAL RESOURCES GROWTH & INCOME GB00B6865B79
Bonds LEGAL & GENERAL ALL STOCKS GILT INDEX TRUST GB00BG0QNV10 FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts BG05:FSI

Performance

Performance is based on the index funds corresponding indicies. Performance is measured back in time by the time period specified. For max we look at the performance back to the first date we have prices for all indices.

Cumulative Performance

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH 0.831685715 0.879249615 0.902789228 0.989523491 1.172302143 1.517318836
UBAH Redistribute 0.835852341 0.882673981 0.899530896 0.981648124 1.173650671 1.513607284
Timed Ivy 0.932733734 0.97425948 0.980776456 0.913977893 1.056040218 1.504608514
GTAA 0.930821592 0.964122198 0.966920422 0.935351524 1.095793166 1.336883967

alt text

Maximum Drawdown

Closer to zero is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.271400747 -0.271400747 -0.271400747 -0.271400747 -0.271400747 -0.271400747
UBAH Redistribute -0.266924208 -0.266924208 -0.266924208 -0.266924208 -0.266924208 -0.266924208
Timed Ivy -0.128322 -0.128322 -0.128322 -0.207942679 -0.207942679 -0.207942679
GTAA -0.086212006 -0.086212006 -0.091963841 -0.117373811 -0.117373811 -0.117373811

Sharpe Ratio

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.141597905 -0.065484612 -0.032658488 0.001789517 0.021000565 0.034769371
UBAH Redistribute -0.144077363 -0.066511968 -0.035838674 0.000118724 0.021456736 0.035161234
Timed Ivy -0.103901926 -0.022180304 -0.007322094 -0.015211285 0.009581282 0.033389342
GTAA -0.197115347 -0.058266231 -0.024985126 -0.019473909 0.018386105 0.03535207

Portfolio Allocations by Asset Class

Timed Ivy

alt text

GTAA

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Active Manager Portfolio

In this portfolio we experiment with active managers for equities, choosing experienced managers that have consistently outperformed their index over many years.

Asset Class Fund Fund ISIN / Ticker Symbol Index Index ISIN
International FUNDSMITH EQUITY GB00B41YBW71
UK LF LINDSELL TRAIN UK EQUITY GB00BJFLM156
Property ISHARES GLOBAL PROPERTY SECS. EQ. INDEX GB00BPFJCF57 FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed REITs GBP FTERGLS:FSI
Commodities BLACKROCK NATURAL RESOURCES GROWTH & INCOME GB00B6865B79
Bonds LEGAL & GENERAL ALL STOCKS GILT INDEX TRUST GB00BG0QNV10 FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts BG05:FSI

Performance

Cumulative Performance

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH 0.871456947 0.926232095 0.954686896 1.134772625 1.44213341 2.059814939
UBAH Redistribute 0.86484401 0.912213934 0.93474097 1.07738121 1.367615656 1.929072317
Timed Ivy 0.922519559 0.946661113 0.973688289 1.033994233 1.270027215 1.776674753
GTAA 0.954315211 0.987780589 0.996594926 1.024649403 1.244296971 1.666950113

alt text

Maximum Drawdown

Closer to zero is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.232029494 -0.232029494 -0.232401797 -0.232401797 -0.232401797 -0.232401797
UBAH Redistribute -0.226508688 -0.226508688 -0.231874487 -0.231874487 -0.231874487 -0.231874487
Timed Ivy -0.128125916 -0.128125916 -0.163256165 -0.163256165 -0.163256165 -0.163256165
GTAA -0.062707116 -0.062707116 -0.088665514 -0.088665514 -0.088665514 -0.088665514

Sharpe Ratio

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.10833578 -0.038166734 -0.012287435 0.025544338 0.043248064 0.057839582
UBAH Redistribute -0.126615565 -0.052345578 -0.022992326 0.017410811 0.039404527 0.055358916
Timed Ivy -0.118678647 -0.047972264 -0.009441896 0.009661299 0.028810249 0.04374717
GTAA -0.164109581 -0.021965194 -0.0005271 0.009554645 0.038104535 0.057893714

Portfolio Allocations by Asset Class

Timed Ivy

alt text

GTAA

alt text

Extensions

Here we explore extensions proposed in the most recent publication of GTAA.

  • Instead of holding the cash portion as cash, it is invested in the All Stocks Gilt Index. In the paper they found investing the cash portion in 10 year government bonds improved performance, even in periods of heightened inflation.
  • The asset classes are broken down into smaller subclasses. We break down the subclasses slightly differently as we could not find tracker funds for all the subclasses they use.
  • As the asset classes are broken into subclasses, the weights are no longer uniform for UBAH and GTAA.
  • The timing system uses the top 6 performing classes, chosen based on the average of the 1, 3, 6, and 12 month returns.

Index Tracker Portfolio

In this portfolio we only use index tracker funds, except for commodities, where we could not find tracker funds. Instead for commodities we use actively managed funds with experienced management.

Asset Class Category Fund Weight ISIN Index
Equity UK Large Cap HSBC FTSE 100 INDEX 10.0% GB00B80QFR50 FTSE 100
UK Mid Cap HSBC FTSE 250 INDEX 10.0% GB00BV8VN686 FTSE 250
Developed Large Cap LEGAL & GENERAL INTERNATIONAL INDEX TRUST 5.0% GB00BG0QP604 FTSE ALL-WORLD EX UK IDX
Developed Small Cap VANGUARD GLOBAL SMALL-CAP INDEX 5.0% IE00B3X1NT05 MSCI Small Cap World Index
Foreign Emerging ISHARES EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INDEX 10.0% GB00BJL5BW59 FTSE All-World Emerging Index
Bonds Global Government Bonds ISHARES OVERSEAS GOVERNMENT BOND INDEX 5.0% GB00BPFJD859 JP Morgan Global Government Bond Index ex UK
UK Government Bonds LEGAL & GENERAL ALL STOCKS GILT INDEX TRUST 5.0% GB00BG0QNV10 FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts
UK Government Long Duration Bonds VANGUARD UK LONG DURATION GILT INDEX 5.0% GB00B4M89245 Barclays Capital U.K. Government 15+ Years Float Adjusted Bond Index
UK Corporate Bonds ISHARES CORPORATE BOND INDEX 5.0% GB00BKF2KH76 iBoxx £ Non-Gilts Overall TR Index
Commodities Natural Resources BLACKROCK NATURAL RESOURCES GROWTH & INCOME 10.0% GB00B6865B79
Gold BLACKROCK GOLD & GENERAL 10.0% GB00B99BDY18
Property Property ISHARES GLOBAL PROPERTY SECS. EQ. INDEX 20.0% GB00BPFJCF57 FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed REITs GBP

Performance

Performance is based on the index funds corresponding indicies. Performance is measured back in time by the time period specified. For max we look at the performance back to the first date we have prices for all indices.

Cumulative Performance

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH 0.842225547 0.888625074 0.92602357 0.989964333 1.186267651 1.498463178
UBAH Redistribute 0.904122735 0.954113908 0.994997545 1.048818884 1.280600905 1.597755605
Timed Ivy 0.996582091 1.0476489 1.057841918 1.053814188 1.246619832 1.743956128
GTAA 0.966462715 1.011039942 1.050485295 1.05984678 1.287685439 1.593256603

alt text

Maximum Drawdown

Closer to zero is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.275202564 -0.275202564 -0.275202564 -0.275202564 -0.275202564 -0.275202564
UBAH Redistribute -0.210199081 -0.210199081 -0.210199081 -0.210199081 -0.210199081 -0.210199081
Timed Ivy -0.093891398 -0.093891398 -0.093891398 -0.110234524 -0.110234524 -0.12149702
GTAA -0.10773295 -0.108300818 -0.108300818 -0.108300818 -0.108300818 -0.108300818

Sharpe Ratio

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.126514781 -0.057721314 -0.023036944 0.001790447 0.022612727 0.034426837
UBAH Redistribute -0.096312689 -0.027810758 0.001788405 0.013377403 0.034966545 0.044898955
Timed Ivy -0.000032666 0.049423531 0.03516347 0.015013009 0.032115279 0.053123518
GTAA -0.03782114 0.013899395 0.0304292 0.01755995 0.039783377 0.0501731

Portfolio Allocations by Asset Class

Timed Ivy

alt text

GTAA

alt text

Active Manager Portfolio

In this portfolio we experiment with active managers for equities, choosing experienced managers that have consistently outperformed their index over many years.

Asset Class Category Fund Weight ISIN Index
Equity UK Large Cap LINDSELL TRAIN UK EQUITY 10.0% GB00BJFLM156
UK Small Cap MARLBOROUGH UK MICRO-CAP 10.0% GB00B8F8YX59
Global Large Cap 1 FUNDSMITH EQUITY 2.5% GB00B41YBW71
Global Large Cap 2 LINDSELL TRAIN GLOBAL EQUITY 2.5% IE00BJSPMJ28
Global Flex Cap RATHBONE GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES 2.5% GB00BH0P2M97
Global Small Cap BAILLIE GIFFORD GLOBAL DISCOVERY 2.5% GB0006059330
Emerging Markets JPMORGAN EMERGING MARKETS 10.0% GB00B1YX4S73
Bonds Global Government Bonds ISHARES OVERSEAS GOVERNMENT BOND INDEX 5.0% GB00BPFJD859 JP Morgan Global Government Bond Index ex UK
UK Government Bonds LEGAL & GENERAL ALL STOCKS GILT INDEX TRUST 5.0% GB00BG0QNV10 FTSE Actuaries UK Conventional Gilts
UK Government Long Duration Bonds VANGUARD UK LONG DURATION GILT INDEX 5.0% GB00B4M89245 Barclays Capital U.K. Government 15+ Years Float Adjusted Bond Index
UK Corporate Bonds ISHARES CORPORATE BOND INDEX 5.0% GB00BKF2KH76 iBoxx £ Non-Gilts Overall TR Index
Commodities Natural Resources BLACKROCK NATURAL RESOURCES GROWTH & INCOME 10.0% GB00B6865B79
Gold BLACKROCK GOLD & GENERAL 10.0% GB00B99BDY18
Property Property ISHARES GLOBAL PROPERTY SECS. EQ. INDEX 20.0% GB00BPFJCF57 FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed REITs GBP

Performance

Cumulative Performance

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH 0.871573408 0.928913972 0.963699914 1.099673276 1.381755346 1.79505248
UBAH Redistribute 0.934489855 0.998080584 1.033926942 1.195727247 1.528097415 2.055082664
Timed Ivy 0.981693518 1.028732368 1.033505337 1.265204172 1.511386048 2.254438305
GTAA 0.986657791 1.03373132 1.081142667 1.157325864 1.441362193 1.858849934

alt text

Maximum Drawdown

Closer to zero is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.246916387 -0.246916387 -0.246916387 -0.246916387 -0.246916387 -0.246916387
UBAH Redistribute -0.186610761 -0.186610761 -0.186610761 -0.186610761 -0.186610761 -0.186610761
Timed Ivy -0.098103861 -0.098103861 -0.124487693 -0.124487693 -0.124487693 -0.124487693
GTAA -0.106284657 -0.106284657 -0.106284657 -0.106284657 -0.106284657 -0.106284657

Sharpe Ratio

Higher is better.

3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Max
UBAH -0.108298688 -0.036926101 -0.009513528 0.020929898 0.040745488 0.050032395
UBAH Redistribute -0.065247349 0.003844474 0.019668822 0.0402449 0.056015205 0.065880846
Timed Ivy -0.021303074 0.030676266 0.020439394 0.048825065 0.049389755 0.065735129
GTAA -0.011450108 0.033270293 0.046007474 0.039635893 0.055539626 0.065663532

Portfolio Allocations by Asset Class

Timed Ivy

alt text

GTAA

alt text

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Backtesting GTAA and Timed Ivy Portfolio against UBAH and UBAH Redistributed for diversified portfolio

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