Add post on US election

content/blog/2024-11-14-reflections-us-election-2024.md

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+Title: Reflections on US election 2024
+
+I'm no expert in US politics but do try to pay attention (largely aided by the [538 politics podcast](https://abcnews.go.com/538). 
+I always thought the result would be close but talked myself round to a rosier view of how it would pan out after the Selzer 
+Iowa poll and reporting that late-deciders were breaking for Harris. I was more aware of a potential Trump victory, and 
+was not as shocked as I was in 2016, particularly given the close result in 2020 and the tight polling making 
+scenarios where either candidates win a clean sweep of swing states being two of the more likely outcomes.
+
+However, on reflection there were a number of factors I should have given greater consideration. In 2024, and largely since
+the inflationary shocks of 2022 we have seen elections largely go [against incumbent governments](https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:y3xjyk7cpvapkcgtblns3oo6/post/3lacced6sw522).
+The American election is no exception to this rule, Biden has consistently polled a [negative double-digit favourability rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/)
+since about May 2023 and perceptions of the economy are stubbornly in the ["getting worse" box](https://today.yougov.com/topics/economy/trackers/state-of-us-economy). 
+That is a very tough context for any Democrat to run against and whilst I thought Biden dropping out was
+absolutely the right thing to do it was always going to be difficult for the literal Vice President of this administration
+to meaningfully move the dial with an electorate who were not feeling an improving economy.
+I also did not give enough consideration to the fact that voters in America don't seem to mind voting for a Presidential
+candidate they don't actually like. Donald Trump was a historically unpopular President during his first term and that 
+perception has not softened from 2020-2024 but as we saw in the 2020 election and in 2024 he is a consistent vote winner. 
+In 2024 the perception he was stronger on the economy and on immigration (two top issues of campaign) certainly helped. 
+In hindsight this reminds me of the 2019 UK general election where the Conservatives won a resounding victory over the 
+Labour party under the leadership of Boris Johnson who in the final YouGov poll of 2019 had a [-11% approval rating](https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x02rt85qzd/YouGov%20Favourability%20ratings%20191214.pdf)
+(although this was better than Jeremy Corbyn's who has -50%). Actually approving of a candidate appears less important 
+if that candidate aligns with your preferred stance on issues of the day, something I didn't give enough credence too.
+
+The irony of people voting for candidates that might not approve of highly but might prefer their position on key policy
+issues is that when people were polled on specific policies from Trump and Harris it was found that Harris's policies
+actually [poll better](https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50802-harris-vs-trump-on-the-issues-whose-policies-do-voters-prefer).
+This again gives me flash backs from 2019 where famously Corbyn claimed after the result that he had 'won the argument'
+with polling of individual Labour policies actually being shown to have [high support](https://labourlist.org/2019/11/how-popular-are-labours-radical-manifesto-policies/).
+However, having individual policies with high support didn't save Labour, and it seems didn't save Harris either. In 2019
+the public had a very poor perception of Corbyn as a leader and the leading issue of the day was the UK's approach to 
+leaving the European Union, Johnson campaigned under a clear (if empty) slogan of "Get Brexit Done" whilst Labour offered
+a renegotiated deal and a second referendum. In 2024, inflation and the economy appear to have been the [key issue](https://news.gallup.com/poll/651719/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx)
+in America with Trump largely favoured as better able to handle the economy. It's easy to draw these comparisons now but
+it's a good example (albeit just one) of where I should have had a stronger prior for Trump than I did.
+
+There'll undoubtedly be lots to pick over in the coming months as more detailed electoral surveys are done to understand
+exactly why America voted the way it did. My strong contention is that the cost-of-living and the anti-incumbency tendency 
+were strong contributing factors to the Democrats loss but that Harris likely performed better than if Biden has remained
+the candidate. Nate Silver offers an interesting comparison to the [result in 2004](https://www.natesilver.net/p/its-2004-all-over-again) 
+and the fact the 2nd Bush administration didn't work out so badly for Democrats, ending with the triumphant election of
+Barack Obama in 2008. Crucially, Trump now owns all the same problems that existed in Biden's in-tray and I would be 
+doubtful of his ability to stick the landing on many of these issues from tariffs to the Middle east. 
+
+We will just have to wait and see how this continued stress test of American democracy pans out...