Merge branch 'develop' of github.com:remindmodel/remind into develop

CITATION.cff

@@ -271,7 +271,7 @@ abstract: REMIND (REgional Model of Investment and Development) is a numerical
   technology, policy and climate constraints. It also accounts for regional trade 
   characteristics on goods, energy fuels, and emissions allowances. All greenhouse 
   gas emissions due to human activities are represented in the model.
-version: "3.3.2.dev1058"
+version: "3.3.2.dev1073"
 date-released: 2024-12-02
 repository-code: https://github.com/remindmodel/remind
 keywords:

config/default.cfg

@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ cfg$validationmodel_name <- "VALIDATIONREMIND"
 
 #### model version of the overall model (used for run statistics only).
 # automatically generated for development versions, updated by hand for releases
-cfg$model_version <- "3.3.2.dev1058"
+cfg$model_version <- "3.3.2.dev1073"
 
 #### settings ####
 cfg$gms <- list()

core/bounds.gms

@@ -85,10 +85,16 @@ vm_prodSe.fx(t,regi,"pecoal","seel","pco") = 0;
 vm_demPe.fx(t,regi,"pewin","seel","wind") = 0;
 vm_prodSe.fx(t,regi,"pewin","seel","wind") = 0;
 
-*' Switch off grey hydrogen investments in gash2 technology from 2025. Our current seh2 hydrogen represents only additional (clean) hydrogen use cases to current ones
-*' and there are no plans to expand grey hydrogen production for that.
+*' Switch off coal-h2 hydrogen investments. Our current seh2 hydrogen represents only additional (clean) hydrogen use cases to current ones.
+*' However, as we have too high H2 demand in 2025 and 2030 from the input data, we need to allow grey hydrogen for these time periods to meet the hydrogen demand
+*' which cannot be fully met by incoming low-carbon H2 techologies. This should be removed once FE H2 industry input data is adapted.
 *' It is allowed before 2020 to not make the model infeasible for low demands of hydrogen in that year.
-vm_deltaCap.up(t,regi,"gash2",rlf)$((t.val ge 2025)) = 1e-8;
+vm_deltaCap.fx(t,regi,"coalh2",rlf)$(t.val ge 2020) = 0;
+vm_deltaCap.fx(t,regi,"gash2",rlf)$((t.val gt 2030)) = 0;
+*' upper bound of 0.5 EJ/yr on grey hydrogen to prevent building too much grey H2 before 2020, distributed to regions via GDP share
+vm_cap.up("2020",regi,"gash2","1") =  0.5 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2020",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2020",regi2));
+
+
 *' @stop
 
 *** -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -298,10 +304,17 @@ loop(te$(sameas(te,"ngcc") OR sameas(te,"ngt") OR sameas(te,"gaschp")),
 *' 2 GW(el) at least globally in 2025, about operational capacity as of 2023
 vm_cap.lo("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 2 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("2025",regi)
                                          / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2)) * 1e-3;
-*' 10 GW(el) at maximum globally in 2025
-vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 10 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("2025",regi)
+*' 20 GW(el) at maximum globally in 2025 (be more generous to not overconstrain regions which scale-up fastest)
+vm_cap.up("2025",regi,"elh2","1")= 20 * pm_eta_conv("2025",regi,"elh2")*pm_gdp("2025",regi)
                                          / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2025",regi2)) * 1e-3;
 
+*** bounds on biomass technologies
+*' set upper bounds on biomass gasification for h2 production, which is not deployed as of 2025
+*' set maximum of 0.1 EJ/yr production by 2030 for each technology
+vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
+vm_cap.up("2030",regi,"bioh2c","1")= 0.1 / 3.66 * 1e3 / 8760 * pm_gdp("2030",regi) / sum(regi2,pm_gdp("2030",regi2));
+
+
 *** fix capacities for advanced bio carbon capture technologies to zero in 2020 (i.e. no BECCS in 2020)
 vm_cap.fx("2020",regi,te,rlf)$(teBio(te) AND teCCS(te)) = 0;
 

core/datainput.gms

@@ -1210,7 +1210,6 @@ $ifthen.cm_subsec_model_steel "%cm_subsec_model_steel%" == "processes"
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"bfcc")            = 0.05;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"idrcc")           = 0.05;
 $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel
-  p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"elh2") = 0.5;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"MeOH") = 0.5;
   p_adj_seed_te(ttot,regi,"h22ch4") = 0.5;
 
@@ -1251,7 +1250,6 @@ $endif.cm_subsec_model_steel
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,teGrid)            = 0.3;
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,teStor)            = 0.05;
 
-  p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"elh2")            = 0.5;
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"MeOH")            = 0.5;
   p_adj_coeff(ttot,regi,"h22ch4")            = 0.5;
 

core/equations.gms

@@ -1068,18 +1068,18 @@ q_shfe(t,regi,entyFe,sector)$(pm_shfe_up(t,regi,entyFe,sector) OR pm_shfe_lo(t,r
 
 q_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe)$(entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe) OR entySeFos(entySe)).. !! share of energy carrier subtype in final energy demand of the aggregated carrier type (eg 'the share of bio-based FE liquids in all FE liquids')
   v_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe) 
-  * sum((sector,emiMkt)$sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt),
+  * sum((sector,emiMkt)$(sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) AND (NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR")))),
       sum(seAgg$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe), !! determining the aggregate SE carrier type (liquids, gases, ...)
         sum(entySe2$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe2), !! summing over the bio/fos/syn variants of the chosen SE carrier"
           sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe2,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)),
             vm_demFeSector_afterTax(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)))))
   =e=
-  sum((sector,emiMkt)$sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt),
+  sum((sector,emiMkt)$(sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) AND (NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR")))),
     sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)),
       vm_demFeSector_afterTax(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)))
 ;
 
-q_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$((entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe) OR entySeFos(entySe)) AND (sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt)))..
+q_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$((entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe) OR entySeFos(entySe)) AND (sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt)) AND NOT(SAMEAS(sector,"CDR")))..
   v_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt) 
   * sum(entySe2$sefe(entySe2,entyFe),
       vm_demFeSector_afterTax(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt))
@@ -1156,7 +1156,8 @@ q_penSeFeSectorShareDev(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(
     (t.val ge 2025) AND  !!disable share incentives for historical years in buildings, industry and CDR as this should be handled by historical bounds   
     ( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) ) AND !!only create the equation for valid cobinations of entySe, entyFe, sector and emiMkt
     ( (entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe)) ) AND !!share incentives only need to be applied to n-1 secondary energy carriers
-    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) AND !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR"))) !! disable share incentives for CDR sector as it leads to solver problems
   )..
   v_penSeFeSectorShare(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)
   =e=
@@ -1168,7 +1169,8 @@ q_penSeFeSectorShareDev(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(
     (t.val ge 2025) AND  !!disable share incentives for historical years in buildings, industry and CDR as this should be handled by historical bounds
     ( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) ) AND !!only create the equation for valid cobinations of entySe, entyFe, sector and emiMkt
     ( (entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe)) ) AND !!share incentives only need to be applied to n-1 secondary energy carriers
-    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) AND !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR"))) !! disable share incentives for CDR sector as it leads to solver problems
   )..
   v_penSeFeSectorShare(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)
   =e=
@@ -1180,7 +1182,8 @@ q_penSeFeSectorShareDev(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(
     (t.val ge 2025) AND  !!disable share incentives for historical years in buildings, industry and CDR as this should be handled by historical bounds
     ( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) ) AND !!only create the equation for valid cobinations of entySe, entyFe, sector and emiMkt
     ( (entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe)) ) AND !!share incentives only need to be applied to n-1 secondary energy carriers
-    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) AND !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR"))) !! disable share incentives for CDR sector as it leads to solver problems
   )..
   v_penSeFeSectorShare(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)
   =e=
@@ -1192,7 +1195,8 @@ q_minMaxPenSeFeSectorShareDev(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(
     (t.val ge 2025) AND  !!disable share incentives for historical years in buildings, industry and CDR as this should be handled by historical bounds
     ( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) ) AND !!only create the equation for valid cobinations of entySe, entyFe, sector and emiMkt
     ( (entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe)) ) AND !!share incentives only need to be applied to n-1 secondary energy carriers
-    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) AND !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+    ( NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR"))) !! disable share incentives for CDR sector as it leads to solver problems
   )..
   (
     v_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe)
@@ -1217,7 +1221,7 @@ $ifthen.penSeFeSectorShareDevCost not "%cm_seFeSectorShareDevMethod%" == "off"
 q_penSeFeSectorShareDevCost(t,regi)..
   vm_penSeFeSectorShareDevCost(t,regi)
   =e=
-  sum((entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) ),
+  sum((entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) AND (NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR")))),
     v_penSeFeSectorShare(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)
   ) * c_seFeSectorShareDevScale
 ;

core/preloop.gms

@@ -178,9 +178,9 @@ Execute_Loadpoint 'input_ref' vm_capEarlyReti.l = vm_capEarlyReti.l;
 
 *** initialize the carrier subtype shares in final energy demand such that the starting point for the model is "all sectors have the same bio/fos/syn shares for a given carrier type" when cm_seFeSectorShareDevMethod is enabled
 p_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe)$((entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe) OR entySeFos(entySe)) AND sum(seAgg$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe), sum((sector,emiMkt)$sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt), sum(entySe2$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe2), sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe2,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt))))) ) =
-  sum((sector,emiMkt)$sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt), sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)))
+  sum((sector,emiMkt)$(sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) AND (NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR")))), sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)))
   /
-  sum(seAgg$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe), sum((sector,emiMkt)$sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt), sum(entySe2$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe2), sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe2,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)))));
+  sum(seAgg$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe), sum((sector,emiMkt)$(sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt)  AND (NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR")))), sum(entySe2$seAgg2se(seAgg,entySe2), sum(entyFe$(sefe(entySe2,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector)), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)))));
 v_shSeFe.l(t,regi,entySe)$p_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe) = p_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe);
 
 $ifthen.penSeFeSectorShareDevCost not "%cm_seFeSectorShareDevMethod%" == "off"
@@ -190,7 +190,8 @@ vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(
   ( entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe) OR entySeFos(entySe) ) AND !! only redefine vm_demFeSector for entySeBio, entySeSyn and entySeFos items
   ( sefe(entySe,entyFe) AND entyFe2Sector(entyFe,sector) AND sector2emiMkt(sector,emiMkt) ) AND !!only create the equation for valid cobinations of entySe, entyFe, sector and emiMkt
   ( (entySeBio(entySe) OR entySeSyn(entySe)) ) AND !!share incentives only need to be applied to n-1 secondary energy carriers
-  ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+  ( NOT(sameas(sector,"build") AND (sameas(entyFE,"fesos"))) ) AND !!disable buildings solids share incentives
+  ( NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR"))) !! disable share incentives for CDR sector as it leads to solver problems
 ) =
   sum(entySe2$sefe(entySe2,entyFe), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt))
   * p_shSeFe(t,regi,entySe);  
@@ -202,6 +203,7 @@ p_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$((entySeBio(entySe) OR entySe
   /
   sum(entySe2$sefe(entySe2,entyFe), vm_demFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe2,entyFe,sector,emiMkt))
 ;
-v_shSeFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$p_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt) = p_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt);
+v_shSeFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(p_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt) AND NOT(sameas(sector,"CDR"))) = p_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt);
+v_shSeFeSector.l(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt)$(p_shSeFeSector(t,regi,entySe,entyFe,sector,emiMkt) AND (sameas(sector,"CDR"))) = 0;
 
 *** EOF ./core/preloop.gms

modules/33_CDR/portfolio/equations.gms

@@ -208,7 +208,7 @@ q33_EW_ShortTermBound(t, regi)$(t.val eq 2030)..
 q33_EW_upscaling_rate(ttot,regi)$(ord(ttot) lt card(ttot) AND pm_ttot_val(ttot) gt 2030)..
    sum((rlf_cz33, rlf), v33_EW_onfield(ttot,regi,rlf_cz33,rlf))
     =l=
-   (1+p33_EW_upScalingLimit(ttot))**pm_dt(ttot) * sum((rlf_cz33, rlf), v33_EW_onfield(ttot-1,regi,rlf_cz33,rlf))
+   (1+p33_EW_upScalingLimit(ttot))**pm_dt(ttot) * sum((rlf_cz33, rlf), v33_EW_onfield(ttot-1,regi,rlf_cz33,rlf)) + p33_EW_shortTermEW_Limit(regi)
 ;
 
 ***---------------------------------------------------------------------------