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Conference Call Aug 14
Approximately 30-35 participants from the following agencies and institutions joined the call: DoD, NIH, CDC, ASPR, Public Health England, InQTel, Georgia State, UVA, Northeastern, UW, JHU, University of Pittsburgh, LANL, Argonne, SUNY, Gates Foundation, UCSF, Penn State, Institute for Disease Modeling, USF, UF, Harvard.
Dr. Bryan Lewis (UVA) presented a metapopulation model of Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces. The model uses river networks and inland water networks to create a transportation network; connectivity is estimated using a gravity model modulated by travel times instead of geodesic distance. Case counts from the Ministry of Health are calibrated with spatio-temporally varying transmissibility, and the model is used to forecast relative risk across health zones. A forthcoming peer-reviewed publication will provide additional details on the transportation network and the mobility matrix. For additional details, contact Dr. Lewis at [email protected].
Dr. Alessandro Vespignani (Northeastern), in collaboration with NE, UF, FH and FBK, developed a spatially-structured agent-based model to estimate international risk of spread; forward projects for the number of cases and vaccine demand; estimate the number of averted cases; and assess vaccination strategies and scenario analyses. Parameters in the model were varied weekly according to data were from WHO/DRC sources. For additional details, contact Dr. Vespignani at [email protected].
Following the presentations, participants discussed the effect of underreporting on model results and suggested ways to account for underreporting. It was noted that this source of bias is time-varying and difficult to estimate, which complicates efforts to interpret modeling results. Participants discussed using estimates of the number of new cases linked to known cases to estimate underreporting.
Data (un)availability was also identified as an issue. The Humanitarian Data Exchange and DRC/WHO situation reports were offered as two sources of publicly available data. The modeling coordination group is maintaining a list of resources useful to modelers. To add or access resources, contact [email protected] or visit the group’s slack.
Slides are available through the ebola-private Github repository.
Ebola DRC Modeling Coordination Call - August 14 from 1000-1100 ET
Dial-in number (US and Canada only): 1-888-651-5908, code 4997124 Link to International dial-in numbers
Co-hosted by the Fogarty Center, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, and the Outbreak Science and Model Implementation Working Group
Anticipated Agenda:
- 10:00 – 10:10 Opening comments and roll call
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10:10 – 10:25 Dr. Bryan Lewis of University of Virginia
Abstract: We simulate Ebola case counts in DRC using a meta population model at the spatial resolution of health zones in Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces. The connectivity among the health zones is estimated using a gravity model modulated by travel times instead of geodesic ('as the crow flies') distance, obtained by combining road and river networks. Case counts are calibrated with spatio-temporally varying transmissibility, and the model is used to forecast relative risk across health zones.” -
10:25 – 10:40 Dr. Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University
Abstract: Our collaboration (NEU/UF/FH/FBK) has developed an agent-based model for specific locations and the North Kivu forecast the future number of cases in different health zones, and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. We also estimate the risk of National/International spread of Ebola virus by using a global mobility model. -
10:40 – 11:00 Discussion.
Stakeholders (modelers, public health professionals, others) invited to ask questions, make suggestions, and share ideas. Broader discussion of current challenges and open questions in directing the response are also welcome.
Invited participants: Participants will be invited from academia (e.g. MIDAS members); the Federal Government (e.g. CDC, BARDA, DoD, USAID) and international organizations (e.g. MSF, WHO). There will be no restrictions on who can participate.