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update vote intention
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sjwild committed Apr 5, 2022
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## Federal
Last updated: __March 14, 2022__
Last updated: __April 4, 2022__

This is my estimate of Canadian vote intention based on polls listed on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_45th_Canadian_federal_election). The predictions for voting intention assume that the polling errors are the same both pre- and post- 2021 election. That may or may not be true, but I suspect that polling errors are correlated between these periods.

Using polls up to and including March 14, 2022, the LPC and CPC are roughly tied. Estimated vote intention for March 14th was:

|**Party** | **Vote share** | **95% bounds** |
|-------------|:---------------:|:------------------:|
|**LPC** | 33.0% | (30.2%, 35.8%) |
|**CPC** | 32.2% | (28.9%, 35.5%) |
|**NDP** | 18.0% | (15.9%, 20.1%) |
|**BQ** | 7.9% | (6.9%, 9.1%) |
|**GPC** | 2.6% | (1.4%, 3.9%) |
|**PPC** | 4.9% | (3.2%, 6.6%) |
|**Other** | 1.3% | (0.7%, 1.8%) |
|**LPC** | 32.2% | (29.0%, 35.2%) |
|**CPC** | 34.8% | (31.3%, 38.3%) |
|**NDP** | 16.7% | (14.4%, 18.8%) |
|**BQ** | 7.8% | (6.5%, 9.0%) |
|**GPC** | 3.0% | (1.6%, 4.3%) |
|**PPC** | 4.5% | (2.9%, 6.3%) |
|**Other** | 1.0% | (0.4%, 1.6%) |


![alt text](https://github.com/sjwild/Canadian_Election_2021/raw/main/Images/Federal/can_vote_intention_post_2021.png "Density plot of estimated vote share per party.")
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# Estimated house effects:

![alt text](https://github.com/sjwild/Canadian_Election_2021/blob/main/Images/Federal/can_house_effects_pollsters_2019_2022.png "House effects of Canadian polling firms.")
![alt text](https://github.com/sjwild/Canadian_Election_2021/blob/main/Images/Federal/can_house_effects_pollsters_2019_2022.png "House effects of Canadian polling firms from 2019 to 2021.")


## Ontario vote intention

Last updated: __March 14, 2022__
Last updated: __April 4, 2022__

Sometime in the next few months, Ontario should be heading towards a provincial election. This is my estimate of Ontario vote intention based on polls listed on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ontario_general_election#Opinion_polls). Because there are fewer polls here than at the federal level, the underlying vote intentional is much more impercise. nonetheless, we can see the PCs are well in the lead at this point

|**Party** | **Vote share** | **95% bounds** |
|-------------|:---------------:|:------------------:|
|**CPC** | 37.6% | (32.7%, 42.2%) |
|**NDP** | 28.8% | (23.4%, 33.8%) |
|**Liberal** | 25.6% | (19.6%, 31.7%) |
|**Green** | 2.8% | (0.6%, 5.0%) |
|**Other** | 5.0% | (2.3%, 8.0%) |
|**CPC** | 38.4% | (34.8%, 42.0%) |
|**NDP** | 26.7% | (22.4%, 31.0%) |
|**Liberal** | 27.5% | (22.6%, 32.5%) |
|**Green** | 3.3% | (1.6%, 5.0%) |
|**Other** | 4.1% | (2.6%, 5.9%) |

![alt text](https://github.com/sjwild/Canadian_Election_2021/raw/main/Images/Ontario/ON_vote_intention_2022.png "Density plot of estimated vote share per party in Ontario, 2022.")

Expand All @@ -72,3 +72,4 @@ Ellis, P. (2019). ozfedelect R package. Retrieved from https://github.com/ellisp
Savage, J.(2016). Trump for President? Aggregating National Polling Data. Retrieved from https://khakieconomics.github.io/2016/09/06/aggregating-polls-with-gaussian-Processes.html.

INWT Statistics GmbH (2021). Election forecast. Retrieved from https://github.com/INWTlab/lsTerm-election-forecast.

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